Від Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s energy sector has been one of the main targets of continuous attacks. With periodic missile and drone attacks on the energy infrastructure, Ukraine lost over half of its pre-war generating capacities, and circa 50% of electricity transmission infrastructure has been damaged. As recently as spring 2024, Ukraine lost around 8 GW of capacities. Russia continues to constantly attack energy infrastructure facilities, leading to disruptions in gas and electricity supplies, as well as provision of district heating.
According to KSE Institute, as of January 2024, the total amount of direct documented damages inflicted upon Ukraine’s infrastructure reached 155 bn USD (at replacement cost), including 9 bn USD as direct damages from the destroyed infrastructure of the energy sector. The housing stock remains in first place in terms of damage. As of January 2024, there were almost 250.000 damaged and destroyed buildings, with 222.000 being private houses, over 27.000 apartment buildings, and 526 dormitories, with direct damages at the level of 58.9 bn USD.
According to RDNA3, the total recovery and reconstruction needs for the energy sector are estimated at 47.1 bn USD over 10 years. This amount includes 40.4 bn USD necessary to rebuild the power generation sector, based on the green transition principles. Recovery and reconstruction priorities for 2024 were estimated at about 2.7 bn USD. The total damage to the housing stock has increased by 11% since February 2023, with the total cost of damage at 55.9 bn USD. The needs for the housing sector are estimated at 80.3 bn USD across the long term (2024-2033),with 2.1 bn USD priorities for 2024.
Moreover, according to analysis from the pre-war year of 2021, approximately 80% of about 1 billion m² of the housing stock of Ukraine is depreciated. According to the State Statistics Service, before the war, there were 45.500 old buildings and 16.800 buildings in emergency status in Ukraine. The vast majority of such three- to five-storey buildings, panel or brick, were built in large cities up to and including the mid-1970s and today have critical indicators of physical wear and tear. Of the 200.000 apartment buildings, almost 12% were built in 1919-1945, every fourth building was built in 1946-1960, and almost a quarter in the 1960s. Over 67.000 houses were built between 1960-1980.
Thus, in addition to the large number of buildings damaged during the war, Ukraine also needs renovation and reconstruction of the existing buildings of the outdated housing stock.
According to the ‘Long-Term Strategy for the Thermal Modernization of Buildings until 2050’, it is expected that 85-90% of existing buildings thathave not been significantly damaged as a result of large-scale Russian military aggression will still exist and be in use in 2050 (these figures may be adjusted in the future). Therefore, the introduction of large-scale renovation of buildings is an urgent need and a strategic goal. Currently, the specific energy consumption of buildings in Ukraine is 2-3 times higher than in the EU Member States. The average specific energy consumption of residential buildings in Ukraine is 163 kWh/m² per year. The current rate of thermal modernization of buildings in Ukraine (at 0.1%) remains extremely low and lags far behind the EU (about 1%).
The high level of energy consumption also causes excessive associated losses (for conversion, transportation, and technological needs). In the 2020 energy balance, according to the State Statistics Service, the volume of energy consumption by the residential sector is 13.601 ktoe (28.5% of final consumption). However, such excessive numbers indicate a significant potential for reducing energy consumption in buildings.
On December 29.2023, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine approved the Long-Term Strategy for the Thermal Modernization of Buildings until 2050 and the Concept of the State Target Economic Program for Buildings’ Thermal Modernization Support until 2030 to develop an effective and coordinated public policy, finance and implement reliable instruments of support for energy efficiency in buildings.
The Strategy envisages that renovation will be carried out to bring the buildings’ energy performance in line with the minimum requirements, while after 2030 to nearly zero energy building (NZEB) standard.
The main objectives of the Strategy for the period up to 2030 include:
- achieving energy savings in government buildings at the level of an annual reduction in energy consumption of 1% of the area of the relevant buildings;
- implementation and operation of an energy management system in at least 90% of communities;
- reduction of final energy consumption in the buildings sector by 15%;
- introduction of measures to overcome energy poverty, while tariffs (prices) for energy resources (utilities) of some suppliers (service
- providers) should be set at the level of market and economically justified;
- achieving a share of at least 36% of residential and public buildings that meet the minimum requirements for energy efficiency of buildings, and at least 10% of public buildings with nearly zero energy consumption.
The expected results of the First Stage (2024-2030) “Post-war recovery and deployment of large-scale thermal modernization” of the Long-Term Strategy for the Thermal Modernization of Buildings until 2050 are presented in the table below.
This report was prepared by DiXi Group with important contributions from Buildings Performance Institute Europe (BPIE). Its development was made possible thanks to the support of the International Renaissance Foundation. DiXi Group, as the lead co-author, bears sole responsibility for the content, which does not necessarily reflect the views of the International Renaissance Foundation.
Source: Dixi Group
